The Loose Forwards

Getting the balance right

Through seven games this season, the All Blacks have used seven loose forwards and five different combinations. At this stage, it hasn’t clicked, and they haven’t got the balance right. Below we are going to look at it from a statistical point of view to see what is working and what isn’t. We have only looked at the starting combinations, noting that play off the bench can quite often distort the statistics. All data has been taken from RugbyPass.

They started the season with two tests against England. The starting loose forwards were as most people expected, Papali’i at Openside, Savea at 8, and Finau on the Blindside. Papali’I was coming off a strong Super Rugby season, Savea was World Rugby player of the year last year, and Finau at 6 Foot 4 and 115kg looks like the Prototypical Blindside.

This combination didn’t click. The work rate as a collective was too low and there was very little impact. Papali’I led the tackle account, but his defensive work rate dropped in the 2^nd test. Savea’s ball carrying was okay in the first test but ineffective in the 2^nd, he also turned the ball over five times. Finau had very little impact for a player of his size, with only one dominant tackle over two tests whilst averaging 1 metre per run (there will be more on averages below). The writing was on the wall for Finau when they pulled him off after 49 minutes in test 2.

The next game was a change of pace against Fiji. They chose to mix things up with Blackadder at 7 and Jacobson at 6. Savea was retained at 8.

It was a different game against a weaker opposition. On defence, the loosies were less involved. Savea carried a lot, and Blackadder had a couple of decent runs. On defence, Blackadder had a shocker missing 4 of 11 tackles, he looked short of a run. Jacobson in general had a low work rate.

Despite Blackadder’s poor showing on defence, they choose to pick him at six against Argentina. Finau had clearly lost their confidence. They went back to Papali’i at 7 and retained Savea at 8.

The main thing that stands out from the Argentinian test is Blackadder’s work rate, 43 tackles across 2 tests. One of the criticisms we have seen is that despite the work rate, Blackadder remains ineffective. These stats seem to disprove that, with 3 dominant tackles and 2 turnovers across the two games, with most coming in the 2^nd game. On the flipside, Papali’I’s workrate in the first test was disappointing and through four tests, he had yet to put in a dominant tackle. Savea remained busy on attack but with mixed success. On the positive side, Savea did limit the turnovers with only one lost across the two games.

Moving onto the South African games, and the choice was made to replace Papali’I with Cane for the first test.

The first 55 minutes of the first South African test was probably the best performance from the loosies so far in 2024. All three had a high work rate, all with decent tackle rates and Savea and Blackadder getting involved in attack. The negatives were Cane being inaccurate with his tackling and gaining little with his carries, as well as no turnovers won across the group.

With Blackadder injured for game two, Sititi came in. Sititi made an immediate impact on attack with 16 carries for 30 metres as well as two line breaks. His power in contact as well as his pace after making the half break really sets him apart from any other loose forward in New Zealand.

Sititi’s performance and Blackadder’s hamstring saw the same trio retained against Australia.

Siiti and Savea both carried the ball well, however Sititi held onto it more effectively. Savea became the workhorse in defence, whilst Cane had his worst game of the season including an awful tackle miss to let in a try. Savea made 16 tackles with no misses, but this obviously doesn’t take into account his tackle on Hunter Paisami, which whilst not missed did eventuate in a try.

Aggregating the above, we get the following averages.

It is clear to say that two loose forwards have stood out this year:

• Blackadder has the highest work rate, highest metres per carry and is close to the highest in dominant tackles per match (0.8 behind Cane, Savea and Sititi all at 1.0). The one concern would be the missed tackle percentage, this was boosted by the Fijian game where he was poor, stripping that game out it falls to 12.5%, which has him 3rd in tackle efficiency.

• Sititi with a high work rate in attack and good efficiency, he also provides impact via dominant tackles and turnovers won. He has a lower defensive work rate but provides a real point of difference in attack. The only slight concern was three missed tackles against South Africa, however he was better against Australia.

With regards to starters, two players can be ruled out:

• Finau: through the two English tests he had an average workrate with little impact, his ball running was a big disappointment.

• Jacobson, who in his one start had a very low workrate and minimal impact.

If fit, Blackadder should be at 6 and Sititi at 8. This leaves the openside spot open and we have three realistic candidates.

• Papali’i

• Savea

• Cane

All three provide a similar defensive work rate (between 0.15 to 0.17 tackles per minute), however Cane is clearly the most inaccurate, missing 1 out of every 5 tackles. Papili’i has a slightly higher defensive work rate than Savea, but he has been almost non-existent on attack. Savea has the best tackle success and his work rate on defence has improved during the year, however he leads all the players in turnovers conceded. Part of this is his running technique, he tends to run high and fight for extra metres, quite often at the expense of ball security and/or quick ball. Based on the above, it is fair to say that no-one has really stuck their hand up to be the openside, hopefully Peter Lakai gets an opportunity on the end of year tour.

Rightly or wrongly, Savea appears to be safe in the starting side, much like many senior players, so we can expect him to start again this week. A couple of comments from Robertson last week caught our attention where he said they had considered moving Savea to 7 and he also hinted at giving Sititi a run at 8, because of this we may see a combination of those two with Blackadder this week. The difficulty for the coaching staff comes with Cane being on 99 tests, they have to give him one more at some stage, either this week off the bench (the sentimental thing would be to do it in New Zealand) or against Japan, however that last game against Australia should see the end of his test career brought forward.